Fundamental analysis · Fundamentals

The Economic Calendar

CPI, jobs, GDP and the minutes that move every market.

Level: IntermediateTimeframe: 1m to DailyStyle: Day / SwingMarkets: Forex, indices, futures

What it is

Major economic releases such as inflation (CPI), jobs (Non-Farm Payrolls) and central bank decisions are scheduled in advance and can move every market within seconds. What matters is the surprise versus the forecast. Most traders either stay flat into the release or wait for the first chaotic minutes to pass before trading the reaction.

How it works

• Check an economic calendar every morning and note high-impact events.
• Each release has a forecast and an actual number. The surprise drives the move.
• Spreads widen and slippage rises in the first seconds: avoid market orders then.
• Wait 5–15 minutes for the dust to settle, then trade a clear break or reclaim of the pre-release range.
• For swing trades, decide in advance whether to reduce size before major events.

Pros

• Scheduled volatility
• Clear catalysts
• Works across forex, indices and futures

Cons

• Wild spikes and slippage
• Moves can reverse quickly
• Needs fast execution

Common mistakes

• Placing market orders in the first seconds
• Guessing the number before the release
• Forgetting a release is scheduled while in a trade

Lesson transcript

Part four: the economic calendar. A handful of reports each month can move stocks, currencies, gold and bonds all at once, within seconds. Every trader needs to know when they're coming. Here are the big ones. C P I measures inflation. Non-farm payrolls measures job creation. The F O M C decision sets U S interest rates. G D P measures economic growth. And P M I surveys give an early read on business activity. Each release has a forecast and an actual number. The market has already priced in the forecast. What moves price is the surprise. Inflation hotter than expected, for example, often pushes stocks down and the dollar up. Here's a one minute chart of a stock index at eight thirty in the morning, when C P I comes out. Quiet before. Then a violent drop as the number hits. Spreads widen, orders slip. This is not the moment to click buy or sell. We wait for the dust to settle. Here, sellers run out of steam and price climbs back above the range it held before the release. That reclaim is our signal. Stop below the spike low. The rules. Check the calendar every morning. Never guess the number. Avoid the first seconds. Then trade the break or reclaim of the pre-release range, with your stop beyond the spike. Recap. Know the schedule, focus on the surprise, and let the chaos pass before you act. In the final part, we'll look at the biggest force of all: central banks and interest rates.

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